CINCINNATI — History is not hypothetical. The 2021-22 Cincinnati Bearcats were 17-9 (7-6 AAC) in mid-February before getting beat at home by Temple, 75-71. It was the first of five consecutive losses to end the regular season and a sour finish to Year 1 for head coach Wes Miller.

On Wednesday night, the 2022-23 Cincinnati Bearcats traveled to East Carolina — the program’s final visit to Greenville, N.C., before joining the Big 12 next season — with a record of 17-9 (8-5 AAC). Cincinnati lost 75-71, blowing a 16-point lead with nine minutes left in the second half. There are four regular-season games remaining.

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It was the worst loss of the year for the Bearcats. Granted, losing to Northern Kentucky in November while managing just 11 points in the second half may have cut deeper for many UC fans, but that was also just the fourth game on the schedule. According to the NET rankings and KenPom, Wednesday’s failure was the most disappointing and debilitating thus far. The Greenville house of horrors provided one final dose of agony for Cincinnati basketball.

Brutal as it was, the more pivotal reality is what comes next. Cincinnati desperately needs to avoid a repeat of last year’s late-season collapse, a potential parallel that felt more and more ominous as the Pirates surged back in the final minutes and the Bearcats wilted on both ends of the floor. This team is better than last year’s, a claim backed up by both the metrics and eye test (Wednesday night notwithstanding), yet so many of the issues that plagued them down the stretch a season ago have returned: an over-reliance on 3-pointers, an inability to attack and create on offense, inconsistent defensive focus that allows easy driving lanes to the hoop and getting beat on the glass.

Some of that — maybe most of that? — is health related, particularly the absence of Viktor Lakhin, who missed his second game in a row since his ankle injury against Tulane. Cincinnati has also been without John Newman III all season and Rob Phinisee for most of it. They’re the team’s two best on-ball defenders. But Lakhin is UC’s leading rebounder and shot-blocker and third-leading scorer, and he’s the only consistent frontcourt presence on both ends. He, along with Landers Nolley II, is the most notable difference from last year’s roster, with the ability to score and run action through him in the post or the pick-and-roll, especially when the offense flatlines. His absence has had a significant impact. Cincinnati hasn’t been the same since he hobbled off the floor in New Orleans, and it probably won’t be again until he returns.

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But we’re also not talking about a conference-championship contender battling to stay atop the standings without a vital player, or a short-handed bubble team fighting for quality wins ahead of Selection Sunday. This was a 16-point, second-half lead against a .500 ECU squad with a first-year, first-time head coach that was missing its own leading scorer in Javon Small. The Bearcats had no business blowing that game, with or without Lakhin.

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That’s the root of the anger and disappointment for fans, just as it is for those inside the locker room. The most valid knock against this team for much of the season has been its struggles in big games against quality opponents. There was progress in that, frustrating and incremental as it might have felt, something Bearcats faithful could point to as the next benchmark the program needs to clear. Wednesday night, however, was a halting gut punch to a fan base eager for hope yet trapped in a confounding Venn diagram of optimism, outrage and apathy.

A lot went wrong. The Pirates outscored Cincinnati 26-6 over the final nine minutes, including a 7-0 run to close things out. ECU made eight of its last 12 shots from the field, six of them layups; the Bearcats missed nine of their last 10, seven of them 3-pointers. East Carolina out-rebounded Cincinnati 46 to 27, including 19 offensive rebounds for 17 second-chance points. UC didn’t call two of its timeouts until it was trailing in the final 30 seconds. An already short bench provided no answers or relief from foul trouble.

Naturally, it brought out the knives for Miller. Some of the postgame criticism was warranted and genuine. Some of it was Twitter angst and gambling induced. Regardless, it got noticeably louder.

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The challenges and deficiencies Miller inherited have been well-covered by now, and while they shouldn’t shield him from judgment, they shouldn’t be glossed over, either. Same goes for the contract extension Miller signed in December, which all but guarantees he will be head coach of the Bearcats for the next few seasons. Any rational, good-faith critique or discussion about the program’s direction is free to question Miller, but it can’t reasonably be stipulated on firing him, whether written in all-caps or not. The last thing UC men’s basketball needs right now is another coaching change and cultural rebuild. Miller has a plan and a vision, some of which he’s already executed quite well. The on-court aspect will take time. He deserves the chance to see it through, and he’s going to get it, no matter how loud the post-loss, social-media saber-rattling might get.

Not that it makes the ECU defeat any easier to stomach. You don’t have to count every drop to know it’s raining. Good teams make adjustments when things go sideways — on the court, on the sideline, in the huddle. Yet too often, these Bearcats lose their composure and revert to bad habits as the storm swells and another sizable lead gets squandered. At times they’ve managed to hold on or swing the momentum back just enough, like the road win against SMU or home victories against UCF and South Florida. But then there are also the losses to NKU, Tulane and now ECU — games Cincinnati could have and should have won but didn’t.

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And yes, the Big 12 is looming, and the level of competition won’t be nearly as forgiving.

One of the biggest things this team has going for it is the progress and improvement compared to last season. Losing to East Carolina took some air out of that balloon. It didn’t derail the overall trajectory — this wasn’t an NCAA Tournament team that suffered a resume-shattering upset — but the difference between a strong finish or repeat of last year could be the difference between an NIT berth or early offseason. That feels like a crucial distinction for a team still searching for its identity, and why Wednesday night’s result felt so frustratingly familiar. It was a stark reminder of how far this program still has to go, not to mention how important Lakhin has become to that mission.

All is not lost. One bad game should never be a referendum on a team, coach or season. These Bearcats can still bounce back, finish the year strong and carry that progress forward into the conference tournament, NIT and beyond. But either way, it won’t be hypothetical much longer.

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(Photo: Peter G. Aiken / Getty Images)

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